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Kathmandu, China’s gold holdings may already be far larger than official figures suggest — and could surpass the United States’ stockpile within five years, according to a new analysis from BMO Capital Markets, cited by Kitco News.
In a research note reported on by Kitco News on July 27, BMO commodity analysts argued that China has accumulated roughly 30,000 tonnes of gold above ground, a figure well beyond what official data captures, and that the country now drives about a third of global gold demand. The bank sees that appetite as one of the key forces keeping gold prices anchored above $4,000 an ounce despite a months-long price correction.
BMO’s analysts expect that demand to keep building. Per Kitco’s reporting, the bank projects China’s central bank could match current U.S. Treasury-style reserve levels in roughly five years at its present buying pace, but that in raw tonnage terms, China’s total gold holdings could overtake America’s considerably sooner.
The bank’s breakdown separates official reserves from the broader national stockpile. BMO estimates the People’s Bank of China holds around 5,200 tonnes in its official reserves, with the rest spread across jewelry and private investment holdings putting China’s total share of the world’s above-ground gold near 13%, closing in on the U.S.’s estimated 15% share.
As for how much more Beijing might need to buy, BMO frames catching up to U.S. holdings as a floor, not a ceiling. According to Kitco’s account of the note, the analysts see matching America’s reserve level as a bare minimum goal tied to China’s ambitions for economic growth and for building international credibility for the yuan, implying another roughly 2,500 to 3,000 tonnes of purchases over the next two to five years. They reportedly added that China’s real ambitions may run even higher, pointing to Beijing’s ongoing overseas asset acquisitions as part of that broader push.
BMO also offered a longer-range benchmark tied to money supply. The bank noted that at current prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s gold holdings equal about 5% of America’s M2 money supply — and if China aimed for that same ratio, its central bank would eventually need close to 18,000 tonnes, more than triple the roughly 5,200 tonnes it holds today.
The report comes as China’s central bank has kept buying gold even through a rough patch for prices. Last month’s purchase of 15 tonnes was its largest since October 2023, part of a streak that has added more than 40 tonnes to official reserves so far this year.
Beyond stockpiling metal, BMO says Beijing is also working to reshape where gold gets priced. The bank pointed to Beijing’s efforts to grow Hong Kong’s role as an international bullion trading hub, deepen ties with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and expand futures and over-the-counter market liquidity — moves the analysts say could gradually shift gold price-setting power away from traditional Western trading centers toward China.
